
Defending champions Italy look like the definition of a team that hasn't come together. Rumor has it that coach Marcelo Lippi doesn't yet know his starting 11, and he has used all sorts of pairings during recent practice games (and the results show it). Italy is famous, though, for coming together as the tournament progresses. But, as good a coach as Lippi is and even with a decent amount of talent at his disposal, my hunch is that this isn't Italy's year.
Germany will be missing captain Michael Ballack, and its overall talent level seems middling compared to the traditional powers. But comparable German teams have made deep runs (as Germany did at Euro-2008), and it's hardly out of the question that this team will too.
France is terrific on the wings (Ribery and Malouda) and good at the fullback positions (Sagna and Evra or Clichy). But the French seem far less impressive up the middle, where it counts the most, and its center backs look suspect. That's not a formula for big success.
Portugal may be trading places with Holland, a team they eliminated in a contentious match four years ago. Portugal's greatest generation has faded, leaving the great Ronaldo to conjure up his magic along side players who seem mostly to be a little past their prime. Perhaps Portugal has another good run left, but I see them as a diminished force.
Africa almost always produces a team that makes a nice run through the group stage before bowing out early in the head-to-head stage. And it has always been a different team (Cameroon in 1990, Nigeria in 1994, Senegal in 2002, and Ghana in 2006). This year, with the tournament being held in Africa, I figured that perhaps three African teams would make it past the group stage and that one might well make it into the semi-finals. The problem would be identifying those teams.
Ivory Coast is nearly everyone's choice to make the deep run. But they are in a difficult looking group and their best player, Didier Drogba, broke his arm and (last I heard) his status for the tournament was unclear. Ivory Coast has a strong enough cast to succeed even without Drogba, if it comes to that, but it's unclear whether they will come together under their coach Swen Goran Erikkson (ex-England and Mexico) who took over the team late in the day.